by Michael Wood
What is happening in the middle east? While we concentrate on the Ukrainians steadily losing their war with Russia and the revelation of internally proven Ukrainian losses of circa 400,000 -500,000 permanent casualties, and depletion of its population from near 40 million to just 27 million today, we lose sight of the explosive possibilities in the middle east.
The middle east could easily explode and Iran-Israel fighting rapidly expand through Syria to all of Turkey.
Iran has an odd military mix – capable of producing at least a primitive nuclear weapon, but with wobbly air force equipment to back it up and odd “navy” ideas. …but there has recently been a big injection from Russia…..SU35 aircraft, sharing of missile technology, sharing of Electronic Warfare capability…..Iran, apparently, has received the Russian ultra-long-range electronic warfare system Murmansk-BN. Previously, these complexes were deployed in the Northern Fleet and in Crimea. Their distinctive feature is a suppression range of up to 5 thousand kilometres. This has greatly enhanced Iran’s ability to detect incoming air/missile attacks.
Iran-Hezbollah-Hamas are dedicated to the eradication of Israel and I think that is why some “incident”/”accident” could trigger an explosion beyond anyone’s ability to control.
Iran has a long game in mind regarding the eradication of Israel, the short term game of “all out war” is a US/Israeli game plan….time however is on the side of Iran. Iran sees how Russia prepared itself for war, the importance of industrial capacity as well as military capability, because in all out war, Iran will be fighting total war. Iran does not have the industry, resources or deep expertise to do what Russia is doing………that is why Iran needs nuclear weapons …..and why the US/Israel want to bait and goad Iran now, while they are unprepared. …but of course, some internal pressure in Iran may push Iran to act out of character. But to date, US/Israel have not succeeded in baiting Iran….and they have baited vigorously.
We know from history that wars are often “accidental” progressions of stumbling. Most wars are, but since end of Iran/Iraq war, Iran has used asymmetrical means despite extreme provocation by US/Israel trying to lure them into a war, which suggests US/Israel assesses Iran as not yet capable of managing a conventional warscape.
The problem now is the possibility of someone in Hezbollah or Hamas misjudging, a hotheaded action rapidly escalating. It was lucky the Hamas attack of Israel didn’t flare beyond Israel’s borders. But now Hezbollah and the Houtis are in on the act, and thus the possibility of a mistake increases.
If Israel over-reacts against Hezbollah – will Iran join in? Possibly not if cooler heads prevail. However, with six or more players, some of them not at all disciplined, the room for triggering an explosion is frighteningly real. An explosion triggering a nuclear exchange … dragging in outside forces from the US, Turkey, Europe with the destruction of several middle eastern countries including Turkey.
This has been prophesied and the moslem world is aware of the prophesy. Everyone is now teetering on the edge, and could be drawn over by some unexpected misjudgement or incident.
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Any word from the UN Security Council?
Ditto Nato?
Ditto the EU?
Ditto G20?
Ditto BRICS?
There seems to be a lack of reassuring solidarity for Israel, especially with the confusing signals coming out of the US and the EU. It even begs the question if all or some of the above organisations would be too overly concerned if Iran or any of its proxies wiped Israel from the map. For some it might be a case of “Thank God for that. Let’s move on from that long drawn out nightmare”
Iran and its proxies will continue to attack Israel week in week out, taunting the West again and again. They will probably ramp this up further come November and the US elections.
I would also imagine Iran is playing a waiting game until Russia finally finishes off Ukraine ans scoops it back under the former Soviet umbrella. Putin will feel extremely pleased with himself and will offer further military aid for Iran to “finish the job” with Israel once and for all, while the West continues to dither.
Any word from the UN Security Council?
Ditto Nato?
Ditto the EU?
Ditto G20?
Ditto BRICS?
There seems to be a lack of reassuring solidarity for Israel, especially with the confusing signals coming out of the US and the EU. It even begs the question if all or some of the above organisations would be too overly concerned if Iran or any of its proxies wiped Israel from the map. For some it might be a case of “Thank God for that. Let’s move on from that long drawn out nightmare”
Iran and its proxies will continue to attack Israel week in week out, taunting the West again and again. They will probably ramp this up further come November and the US elections.
I would also imagine Iran is playing a waiting game until Russia finally finishes off Ukraine ans scoops it back under the former Soviet umbrella. Putin will feel extremely pleased with himself and will offer further military aid for Iran to “finish the job” with Israel once and for all, while the West continues to dither.